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Monday, February 21, 2005
Welcome to the third consecutive "Possum's Oscar Prophesies!" I've been watching a lot of movies in my quest to make this the most accurate Prophecies yet. Going into next week's ceremony I stand a modest 26 for 48 in my picks over the last two years, my downfall a year ago was being too democratic in my choices, then watching LOTR take every category.
Let's start at the top:
BEST PICTURE: The Aviator
I liked this movie. It didn't blow me away, but it was very well done. I think it edges out Million Dollar Baby which is also worthy, though I'm not sure that either of these would win in another year. Sideways was my favorite of these five, Finding Neverland was touching and entertaining but not quite Best Picture material, and Ray gets in pretty much on the merits of Jamie Foxx alone.
DIRECTING: Clint Eastwood
Martin Scorcese gets passed over again. I really thought that the Academy was going to give the sympathetic vote to him this year, but the award shows leading up to the Oscars strongly point toward Eastwood taking home his second statue. Both Eastwood and Scorcese make decisions in their films that I think are questionable, but The Aviator is far from Raging Bull or Goodfellas. I'm not even sure that it is better than Gangs of New York.
BEST ACTOR: Jamie Foxx
Don Cheadle, Johnny Depp and Leonardo DiCaprio all turn in outstanding performances. However, I can't figure out how Clint Eastwood gets nominated over Paul Giammati. All that said, this is probably the surest thing this year. Foxx was amazing. To portray a person that has been in the public eye so recently and that so many people are familiar with does not seem like an easy task. Yet, Jamie Foxx makes you believe that he is Ray Charles almost immediately.
BEST ACTRESS: Hilary Swank
Swank will win her second Oscar, and for the second time, she will beat out Annette Bening in doing so. I would also just like to commend the longest shot of any category, Catalina Sandino Moreno, for a wonderful job in Maria Full of Grace.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Morgan Freeman
I was originally going to pick Clive Owen for stealing the show in Closer from heavy-weights Julia Roberts, Jude Law and Natalie Portman, but Morgan Freeman changed my mind in Million Dollar Baby. His best role in a long time...maybe since Shawshank Redemption.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Natalie Portman
Cate Blanchett might very well win this one for a great turn as Katherine Hepburn, but I'm going to stick with Portman for Closer which probably deserves one award. On a related note, nominee Laura Linney never replied when I asked her cousin, my neighbor, to ask her if I could go to the awards with her.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The mastermind behind mind benders such as Adaptation and Being John Malkovich, Charlie Kaufman, wins for one of my favorite movies of the year.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Sideways
Everyone loves Sideways, and this is where it will be honored by the Academy.
CINEMATOGRAPHY: House of Flying Daggers
This is always my favorite category, and I have been accurate the past two years (Road to Perdition and Master and Commander). However, this year the film that I would pick for best cinematography, Closer, wasn't even nominated. As ugly the characters and dialogue in it are, it is beautifully shot. So, I'm going with House of Flying Daggers based mostly on Yimou Zhang's Hero which also was released in the US this year. The Aviator could very well win this won as well.
FILM EDITING: The Aviator
VISUAL EFFECTS: I, Robot
ART DIRECTION: The Aviator
Like gangs of New York, this was an enormous project with amazing art direction from the movie openings to the air fleets.
COSTUME DESIGN: The Aviator
MAKE UP: Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
SOUND MIXING: The Aviator
SOUND EDITING: The Polar Express
SONG: Learn to Be Lonely, The Phantom of the Opera
You almost have to give best song to the only musical.
SCORE: Finding Neverland
ANIMATED FEATURE: The Incredibles
I'm picking this one over Shrek 2 because everyone I've talked to liked Shrek 2, but they rave about The Incredibles. I personally have not seen any of these.
FOREIGN FILM: The Sea Inside
Critics loved it. I haven't seen it. I'm disappointed that Motorcycle Diaries and Maria Full of Grace were not nominated.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: The Story of the Weeping Camel
While highly entertaining and eye opening, SuperSize Me wasn't exactly a great piece of filmmaking. Farenheit 9/11 wasn't pushed for nomination because Michael Moore tried to push it for Best Picture, though it wasn't quite as well done as Bowling for Columbine. Personally, I was surprised/disappointed that Control Room wasn't nominated.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Sister Rose's Passion
Now start the categories that I simply choose based on the name of the film. I have done surprisingly well with this method.
ANIMATED SHORT: Gopher Broke
LIVE ACTION SHORT: 7:35 in the Morning
There's a 7:35 in the morning?!?!?
Alright, I'll be back next week with the run down on how I did. Also, I will offer my top 10 best movies and top 10 favorite movies of the year.
Let's start at the top:
BEST PICTURE: The Aviator
I liked this movie. It didn't blow me away, but it was very well done. I think it edges out Million Dollar Baby which is also worthy, though I'm not sure that either of these would win in another year. Sideways was my favorite of these five, Finding Neverland was touching and entertaining but not quite Best Picture material, and Ray gets in pretty much on the merits of Jamie Foxx alone.
DIRECTING: Clint Eastwood
Martin Scorcese gets passed over again. I really thought that the Academy was going to give the sympathetic vote to him this year, but the award shows leading up to the Oscars strongly point toward Eastwood taking home his second statue. Both Eastwood and Scorcese make decisions in their films that I think are questionable, but The Aviator is far from Raging Bull or Goodfellas. I'm not even sure that it is better than Gangs of New York.
BEST ACTOR: Jamie Foxx
Don Cheadle, Johnny Depp and Leonardo DiCaprio all turn in outstanding performances. However, I can't figure out how Clint Eastwood gets nominated over Paul Giammati. All that said, this is probably the surest thing this year. Foxx was amazing. To portray a person that has been in the public eye so recently and that so many people are familiar with does not seem like an easy task. Yet, Jamie Foxx makes you believe that he is Ray Charles almost immediately.
BEST ACTRESS: Hilary Swank
Swank will win her second Oscar, and for the second time, she will beat out Annette Bening in doing so. I would also just like to commend the longest shot of any category, Catalina Sandino Moreno, for a wonderful job in Maria Full of Grace.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Morgan Freeman
I was originally going to pick Clive Owen for stealing the show in Closer from heavy-weights Julia Roberts, Jude Law and Natalie Portman, but Morgan Freeman changed my mind in Million Dollar Baby. His best role in a long time...maybe since Shawshank Redemption.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Natalie Portman
Cate Blanchett might very well win this one for a great turn as Katherine Hepburn, but I'm going to stick with Portman for Closer which probably deserves one award. On a related note, nominee Laura Linney never replied when I asked her cousin, my neighbor, to ask her if I could go to the awards with her.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The mastermind behind mind benders such as Adaptation and Being John Malkovich, Charlie Kaufman, wins for one of my favorite movies of the year.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Sideways
Everyone loves Sideways, and this is where it will be honored by the Academy.
CINEMATOGRAPHY: House of Flying Daggers
This is always my favorite category, and I have been accurate the past two years (Road to Perdition and Master and Commander). However, this year the film that I would pick for best cinematography, Closer, wasn't even nominated. As ugly the characters and dialogue in it are, it is beautifully shot. So, I'm going with House of Flying Daggers based mostly on Yimou Zhang's Hero which also was released in the US this year. The Aviator could very well win this won as well.
FILM EDITING: The Aviator
VISUAL EFFECTS: I, Robot
ART DIRECTION: The Aviator
Like gangs of New York, this was an enormous project with amazing art direction from the movie openings to the air fleets.
COSTUME DESIGN: The Aviator
MAKE UP: Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
SOUND MIXING: The Aviator
SOUND EDITING: The Polar Express
SONG: Learn to Be Lonely, The Phantom of the Opera
You almost have to give best song to the only musical.
SCORE: Finding Neverland
ANIMATED FEATURE: The Incredibles
I'm picking this one over Shrek 2 because everyone I've talked to liked Shrek 2, but they rave about The Incredibles. I personally have not seen any of these.
FOREIGN FILM: The Sea Inside
Critics loved it. I haven't seen it. I'm disappointed that Motorcycle Diaries and Maria Full of Grace were not nominated.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: The Story of the Weeping Camel
While highly entertaining and eye opening, SuperSize Me wasn't exactly a great piece of filmmaking. Farenheit 9/11 wasn't pushed for nomination because Michael Moore tried to push it for Best Picture, though it wasn't quite as well done as Bowling for Columbine. Personally, I was surprised/disappointed that Control Room wasn't nominated.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Sister Rose's Passion
Now start the categories that I simply choose based on the name of the film. I have done surprisingly well with this method.
ANIMATED SHORT: Gopher Broke
LIVE ACTION SHORT: 7:35 in the Morning
There's a 7:35 in the morning?!?!?
Alright, I'll be back next week with the run down on how I did. Also, I will offer my top 10 best movies and top 10 favorite movies of the year.
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