Possum Holler

Well, my predictions were terrible. 9 of 24. But I did hit 6 of the 8 big ones (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay), only missing Best Actress and Director.

And in case you were wondering about my top 10, here it is:

1. There Will Be Blood
2. No Country For Old Men
3. The Darjeeling Limited
4. Waitress
5. Hairspray
6. Michael Clayton
7. Knocked Up
8. Atonement
9. Hot Fuzz
10. Charlie Wilson's War

Ok, last minute Oscar predictions! I did catch There Will Be Blood this weekend...I give it an A!

Here goes...

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Ladies and gentlemen, this year's Oscar gimme.

Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
The best film villain since Hannibal Lecter.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
I have no idea here.

Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton
I thought she was great in Michael Clayton. Ronan from Atonement is worth mention too.

Best Animated Film: Persepolis
I really wanted to see this, but didn't have time. I would have had to go to NY to find it anyway.

Art Direction: There Will Be Blood

Cinematography: Atonement

Costume Design: Atonement

Directing: There Will Be Blood

Best Documentary: No End in Sight

Documentary Short: La Corona

Film Editing: There Will Be Blood

Foreign Language Film: 12

Makeup: Pirates of the Carribean

Original Score: Atonement

Original Song: August Rush

Animated Short: Peter and the Wolf

Live Action Short: At Night

Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum

Sound Mixing: Transformers
Apparently this guy has been nominated like 20 times and never won.

Visual Effects: Transformers

Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men

Original Screenplay: Juno
You have to think they'll give it something, right?

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
I think There Will Be Blood might have been better, but I liked No Country more. And I think that's how the voters will go too. However, something in the back of my head keeps saying that if there ever was a year that they give it to a move like Juno, then this would be it.

Ok. How did it get to be a week until the Oscars? I haven't had time to catch as many nominated movies as I usually do during January and February, but if I can make it to There Will Be Blood this week, I'll have covered the Best Picture nominees.

I will post my predictions for the awards by the end of the week. Miles, and anyone else out there in the blogosphere are welcome to post there guesses as well.

I did catch a few movies over the past two months. So let's catch up on those...

I Am Legend
Director: Francis Lawrence
Grade: C-

I only went to see this because I was bored and it was the only thing playing that sounded promising. And it was promising, but it didn't follow through with the setup. I also have no idea why it was titled I Am Legend.


Shoot 'Em Up
Director: Michael Davis
Grade: C+

With a wink at the camera, this movie goes so far over the top that it is a lot more fun than most mindless action movies. If you ever wanted to see a fight scene done in mid skydive, or a baby delivered during a shoot out, then this is a must see.


Michael Clayton
Director: Tony Gilroy
Grade: B+

I think I liked this movie. It took me a while to figure out what the point was, but it does a good job of keeping you in suspense even if you don't know what is going on. George Clooney is good, though I didn't find him Oscar nominee good, however, I think Tilda Swinton deserves best supporting actress.

Atonement
Director: Joe Wright
Grade: B

I recommend seeing this movie even though I was bored with it for spells. It is beautifully shot, and I found the first hour intriguing. The second act meanders as if only to represent the passing of time. The war scenes are reminiscent of Saving Private Ryan mixed with the pining for a barely known love of Cold Mountain. I liked the ending of the story, but I didn't like the devices used to present it. The director too often relied on cliched film conventions to hold the plot together. After an hour and fifty minutes of a beautifully shot period piece, we are thrust into present day so that the ending can be explained to us. I found this jolting, invasive, and a bit insulting.

Moving to New Jersey has thrust me into a position that I thought I was prepared for, but now realize I may not be. I am now eligible to vote in a meaningful Presidential primary.

I received my sample ballot and polling place assignment in the mail today. The ballot was nothing I hadn't seen before. There are no local races on it (no wonder there are no campaign signs on the side of the road!). It is simply a list of the candidates for the Republican and Democratic nominations. But for some reason I was overwhelmed by the choice to be made.

I am a registered Democrat, and I have been driving around for over a year with a John Edwards sticker on my car. Before moving to the north a couple of months ago, I lived 5 minutes from his house. I worked as a volunteer for his "Welcome Home" campaign event after his first week touring the country after his announcement to run for President in January of 2007. If he hadn't done so before, he won me over that day with his message and his calling of Americans to serving. In 2004, I was uninspired by John Kerry until he named Mr. Edwards his running mate.

So, my choice should be easy, right?

Well, as I sit here now, I have no idea which lever I am going to pull next week.

My heart tells me to vote for Edwards.

I know he has no chance of winning the nomination. But shouldn't we vote for the candidate whose ideas, goals and vision match up best with our own regardless of what the polls and media tell us? If you believe in a candidate, is there really such a thing as wasting a vote? I guess the answer to the question needs to come from someone who voted for Ralph Nader.

I don't see Edwards being tabbed as a running mate a second time (though it's not impossible), so I really hope that he is able to reinvent himself; maybe take a look at Jimmy Carter and Al Gore. That, or move to Iowa and run for governor (I am not kidding, this would be a great career move for him).

My head tells me to vote for Hillary Clinton.

Of the three top Democratic candidates, I feel like I know the most about Ms. Clinton, and I feel like she is the best suited to step into the job on day one and start making progress. This is one of the most important qualities to me because I believe that we are in need of immediate change and progress. Bill Clinton entered office in 1993 determined to buck the Washington establishment, and as a result, it took him 3.5 years to get anything done. I worry that Barack Obama's message of changing Washington could result in the same sort of stalemate in a time when things need to get done now.

I do believe that Clinton's time as first lady matters. She was a much bigger part of her husband's administration that any other first lady before, and I think that the lessons learned from that experience will be beneficial. Also, her time in the Senate has proved that she has grown as a result of some of her past failures.

But I still can't shake Obama.

He's fresh. He's hopeful. He's a dynamic speaker. And while I question the substance behind his rhetoric, what happens if he becomes the second coming of Jack Kennedy, combined with Bobby, with a splash of Cyrus from The Warriors?

Would I feel stupid in 20 years for not voting for him?

Though that sounds like a weak reason to vote for someone, with a candidate like this it can't be totally dismissed.

The truth is, the Democrats have two once-in-a-generation...or maybe lifetime...candidates on the ballot at the same time, yet neither seems to be driving the substantive debate. I just hope that they don't doom each other.

I will keep the Edwards '08 sticker on my car, but my decision may come all the way down to Tuesday morning. But it is a good position to be in, because regardless of the results, I would feel comfortable voting for all three in November.



I'm 3/5 of my way through the Best Picture nominated movies. I'll post some reviews soon.

The Nanny Diaries
Director: Shari Springer Berman
Grade: C+
I usually really like Scarlett Johannson, but I didn't like her in this role.

Waitress
Director: Adrienne Shelly
Grade: A-
The script sounded like it could have come from Beth Henley, and the waitresses at Joe's could easily pass as the sisters Macgrath.

Charlie Wilson's War
Director: Mike Nichols
Grade: B

Juno
Director: Jason Reitman
Grade: B+
Kind of a cross between Napoleon Dynamite and Superbad. Very enjoyable movie.

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Director: Tim Burton
Grade: B

Ballots for the 2008 inductees into the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame are due back from the Baseball Writers Association of America members on Tuesday. Though obviously not a member, I would like to offer my own ballot as a concerned fan. Voters are instructed to vote for up to 10 players. It takes 75% of the voters to elect a player into the HOF, and any candidate receiving fewer than 5% of the vote will no longer be considered. Players appearing on the ballot for the first time are denoted with an asterisk. Players appearing on the ballot for the 15th and final time are denoted by a plus.

*Brady Andersen NO

Harold Baines NO

*Rod Beck NO

Bert Blyleven NO
I've read all the cases made on his behalf, but it comes down to the fact that as an obsessed kid I would have never noticed him if it weren't for his odd name and sweet beard.

+Dave Concepcion NO

Andre Dawson YES
The great hitters of the 80s and early 90s have suffered the most, in terms of HOF voting, as a result of the steroids era. When he was playing did anyone doubt he was a Hall of Famer? The Hawk has a legitimate shot with no new stars on the ballot this year.

*Shawon Dunston YES
BBWAA members will often toss a vote the way of a player that is not deserving of induction but that they enjoyed covering or who would give them good interviews through the years. So that is sort of what I'm doing here. Dunston is not a HOFer, but as a kid who was a huge Cubs fan, I thought few things were cooler than the Shawon-O-Meter that fans used in the stands of Wrigley Field to monitor his batting average. Though not my favorite Cub, or even my second or third favorite, Shawon Dunston was one of the most memorable players from my youth.

*Chuck Finley NO

*Travis Fryman NO

Rich "Goose" Gossage YES
Just because all of my favorite baseball writers insist he should be.

Tommy John NO

*David Justice NO

*Chuck Knoblauch NO

Don Mattingly NO

Mark McGwire YES
I subscribe to the Buster Olney theory that if you are going to vote for ANY player from the Steroid Era (like Greg Maddux or Derek Jeter, who likely did not use PEDs), you must vote for ALL of the deserving players from the Steroid Era (like McGwire or Barry Bonds, who likely did use PEDs).

Jack Morris NO
I have advocated for Morris before, but Rob Neyer made a great point today that changed my mind. He suggested that in considering a fringe candidate that you take his two best qualities and ask whether they would still be a candidate if you diminished those two qualities a little bit. I think this concept easily eliminates Morris.

Dale Murphy YES
See Andre Dawson. Except the part of having a good chance of getting in this year.

*Robb Nen NO

Dave Parker NO

*Tim Raines YES
His numbers are nearly identical to Ricky Henderson, and Henderson may be one of the most underrated players ever...as well as an inductee the first time he appears on the ballot.

Jim Rice NO
Take him out of Fenway and his fringe numbers would be even less convincing.

Jose Rijo NO

Lee Smith NO

*Todd Stottlemyre NO

Alan Trammell NO

So that is 6 yes votes. That might be a little high in a year where there are no "sure-fire" HOFers on the ballot. But then again, in 1992 I think McGwire, Dawson and Murphy all held that title.

It should probably be noted that most of my evaluations are based on my view of each of these players when I was 10 years old. But, maybe that's the way all voters should make their decisions.

No End in Sight
Director: Charles Ferguson
Grade: B+

In the media for several years we have heard how the war in Iraq has been "mismanaged." For a long time I wasn't entirely sure what this meant. This documentary does a good job beginning to explain the missteps taken in the "management" of the operation. It felt like a condensed version of Bob Woodward's two most recent books, Plan of Attack and State of Denial, which I would recommend over this movie. Of course, No End in Sight won't take as long to get through.


No Country for Old Men
Director: The Coen Brothers
Grade: A

I think I had forgotten just how good Joel and Ethan Coen are. After poor reviews, I never bothered with The Ladykillers, I got burned out on O Brother Where Art Thou after far too many viewings with my college roommate, Will, and it has been a very long time since I've watched Fargo or The Big Lebowski. So, I had not really thought about seeing No Country For Old Men until Sarah called me up late one night because she had just left the theater and needed someone to talk to because she was so creeped out by this movie. I was immediately intrigued.

Based on the Cormac McCarthy novel, No Country For Old Men is a man who finds himself running for his life from vicious drug dealers, and the authorities who watch futilely as the dealers violently sort out their differences amongst themselves. The whole movie reminded me of the quote at the beginning of Jim Jarmusch's Dead Man, "it is preferable not to travel with a dead man."

This is by far the best movie that I have seen so far this year. Anton Chigurh, played by Javier Bardem, deserves a place in the film villain pantheon right along side Hannibal Lecter, Alex de Large and Norman Bates.


Grindhouse: Death Proof
Director: Quentin Tarrantino
Grade: B-

I think this is the first film he has directed that I would consider minor Tarrantino (in my opinion Jackie Brown is vastly underrated). QT's half of the Grindhouse Double Feature consists of two vignettes involving Stuntman Mike (Kurt Russell) and his "death proof" (at least for him) stunt car. The movie is essentially two separate bar scenes where Stuntman Mike meets a group of girls. Each bar scene is followed by a car chase scene in which he tries to kill his new friends. It's as simple as that, and provides us with the most gruesome movie car crash that I recall ever seeing.

Cast wise, I don't think Kurt Russell brought anything to the table that Tarrantino favorite Michael Madsen couldn't have, and Sydney Portier (daughter of Sidney Portier) steals the show from stars Rosario Dawson and Rose MacGowan.